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Edge Reality Check

Every trader knows their win rate. Almost nobody knows whether it means anything yet. This computes your expectancy — then runs the statistics to tell you if your edge is real or still indistinguishable from a lucky streak, and how many trades until you know.

Your track record
Enter at least 5 trades with average winner and loser sizes.

Two-outcome model: every win pays the average winner, every loss costs the average loser. Everything stays in your browser.

Why the sample size matters more than the average:a 62% win rate over 40 trades sounds like an edge, but the honest range on those 40 trades runs from a money-printer to a coin flip. The t-statistic asks whether your average profit stands taller than your trade-to-trade noise — until it clears ~1.96, variance can explain your results. That's not pessimism; it's the reason to keep your risk small while the sample grows.

While you build that sample: size consistently with the risk panel and protect the account with the daily loss tracker — a real edge only pays if you survive long enough to prove it.

Educational tool — statistics on the numbers you enter, not financial advice. The model treats every win and loss as average-sized; fat-tailed strategies (rare big winners) need larger samples than shown. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.

Proving an edge takes a clean sample — same setup, same rules, every time. ImprintTrader scores each trade against yourwritten strategy, so the trades you're counting are actually the same trade.

Score your next setup free →